At the Friends of Europe-hosted EU-Western Balkans Summit, Marta Kos, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, confirmed that the new European Commission will be an enlargement commission, highlighting a viable path for the six Western Balkan nations (WB6) to integrate as the EU seeks to reset. War in Ukraine, the influence of external geopolitical actors and the shift towards illiberal forms of democracy in the Western Balkans require clear action from the EU towards further enlargement. Are we beginning a new age of EU enlargement for the Western Balkans as negotiations with Albania commence and progress with Montenegro advances, as the country aims to become an EU member by 2028? What does all this mean against a backdrop of third-country influence?

Current challenges of the EU and WB6:

In recent years, and decades, different parties have challenged and questioned the European Union’s dominant role in the Western Balkans.

The EU has played a strong role in this region, with Croatia joining the bloc in 2013 and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia all in accession negotiations.

The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s study, Keeping Friends Closer, offers a broader perspective in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with other challenges, such as climate change and the US decoupling from China, while raising important questions about interconnectivity between the EU and its neighbours, compared with the interconnections with the bloc’s peers and rivals.

The EU’s numerous crises, its passive enlargement strategy and the shifting geopolitical landscape, which has come about thanks to increased regional activity of China, Russia and Türkiye, can all help explain this. If the EU enlargement process stalls, it may limit NATO’s ability to intervene in the Western Balkans, allowing for the growth of illiberal democracies and anti-Western external policies. It raises the dual questions of why the rise of illiberalism has happened and why this is a problem for EU stability and security, as well as its wider regional and global influence.

Russian aggression against Ukraine and the Middle East crisis have played their roles in destabilising a complex geostrategic architecture in a way that endangers European and international security. EU enlargement efforts were resurrected in response to Russian aggression, so the bloc could effectively support Ukraine.

This, in turn, gave the Western Balkans accession process new life. Reaffirming the Western Balkan nations’ perspective of EU membership and the necessity of long-term, irreversible reform accomplishments supported by EU principles, economic stability and the rule of law are crucial at this time.

Are the WB6 at a geopolitical crossroads between EU and illiberalism?

The influence of external actors in the region may be primarily explained by this geopolitical shift and the West’s weakness. For instance, the US is moving from being an influential witness to a global fortification of populist and authoritarian governance.

In the Western Balkans increased involvement and influence from China, Russia and Türkiye is correlated with the spread of authoritarian and illiberal forms of governance. But illiberal democracies are not only found outside the EU. Increasingly, this is a concern within the EU, such as Victor Orban’s government in Hungary.

Russia’s positioning against the EU and NATO in the region promotes authoritarian practices of governance. Meanwhile, local politicians who pass themselves off as EU pragmatists, but prefer to use the authoritarian Putin line – or, in some Muslim communities, the Erdogan line – are two examples of how the EU is challenged.

US-Election: What to expect from Washington?

The actions of the US and EU mostly complement each other in the Western Balkan region. But, as shown by Donald Trump’s first administration, Washington sometimes pursues its own goals in the Western Balkans.

Since transatlantic relations under the next Trump administration will probably reach a new low, the EU should pursue a unified geostrategic stance towards these new geopolitical issues to prevent further loss of its own geopolitical and geoeconomic influence in the region.

Under the first Trump administration, people close to Trump and his family pursued personal goals that led to a unilateral shift in US policy in the Western Balkans. Richard Grenell pushed through his special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo peace talks, known as the Washington Agreement.

Grenell also maintained close communication with North Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. He leveraged these ties to help open doors for investment ventures, including those sought by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and his son Donald Trump Jr.

Disorganisation during Trump’s first administration prompted the EU to resurrect its position as a mediator in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. Trump’s shift away from the position of a dominant, democratic-liberal power coincides with a crisis of democracy and liberal values in Europe. Accompanied by a global rise in populist and authoritarian values, the widespread longing of people in the West for a strong man (strongman politics) at the head of government is changing the constellations on the periphery of Europe.

Washington may become more selective and transactional in its future interactions, which could benefit illiberal Western Balkan leaders. It remains to be seen whether illiberal tendencies in areas such as rule of law, freedom of the press and fundamental rights will have an impact on the negotiating position against Brussels on EU conditionality. This could affect how quickly these nations expand and integrate into the EU’s heavily regulated single market. Security dangers and regional tensions may arise as a result.

Other threats could arise from the potential departure of US soldiers from KFOR, the UN peacekeeping force in Kosovo, and the deterioration of NATO’s reputation. Trump’s alliance with illiberal European leaders, such as Victor Orban, creates opportunities for Western Balkan leaders to further consolidate their domestic power, manipulate ethno-revisionist agendas and engage more with outside parties, all of which would diminish EU influence.

Recommendations: What needs to be done?

It is important to use the conclusion of the Hungarian Presidency and the EU-Western Balkans Summit on 18 December as a chance to assess the state of EU enlargement. During Hungary’s presidency, enlargement was a primary policy priority.

Hungary’s desire for expansion needs to be handled cautiously. When it comes to EU enlargement, Orban is pursuing his own goals – to strengthen the illiberal policies of Vucic and Milorad Dodik, president of the Republika Srpska, through his role as the EU’s chief negotiator.

On a bright note, it is important to mention Montenegro’s proclaimed intention of joining the EU by 2028 and the beginning of Albania’s membership negotiations. It is crucial to advance the EU’s enlargement process and provide the Western Balkan nations with the legitimate possibility of membership.

The Western Balkans is a geopolitically contested zone where the West (primarily the EU, the US and NATO) competes with other geopolitical actors, such as Russia, China and Türkiye. After almost 20 years of EU rapprochement, the long wait, lack of – or disappointing – economic prospects and the highly technocratic accession process has led more people to question the path to the EU as an irrevocable goal.

In this respect, the EU should adopt a unified geostrategic approach to these new geopolitical issues to avoid further erosion of its own political and economic influence in the region. Additionally, this revised approach would help the EU assume a new global role as a geopolitical player, given that transatlantic relations under Trump are likely to decrease.

To accomplish this, the EU must have a clear, shared approach with the Western Balkans. A new instrument for greater European integration, the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, including the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans as a new financial instrument, offers some advantages ahead of full EU accession. Promoting progressive integration and collaborative project implementation in the Western Balkans to lessen the region’s reliance on external actors.

Marta Kos, the first EU Commissioner for Enlargement appointed by the EU Commission, is a step toward bringing back the spirit of the 2004 enlargement, when a record 10 countries joined the bloc. But this spirit can only be evoked by a new approach that considers today’s geopolitical and geo-economic factors.

The EU must view the rise of illiberal democracies as an urgent call to defend itself as a pillar of liberal and democratic principles, particularly in light of de-risking tactics vis-à-vis China, Russian aggression against Ukraine and Trump’s January inauguration. Future EU strategy must be centered on security and resilience.

As well as being geographically located in the EU, the Western Balkan states are crucial for regional security and unity. All Western Balkan countries, except Serbia, are in full alignment with the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU. The EU should utilise the accession process to promote its core values to the Western Balkan nations, even though finance is still an important consideration.

The fact that three Western Balkan nations – Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro –are NATO members highlights that they are already strongly involved in security issues. The new geopolitical challenges create a momentum that harks back to the 2004 Eastern enlargement and emphasises that the future of the Western Balkan states lies in the EU.

About the author

Celine Plöger is an intern in the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Europe’s Future programme.

Read more about EU enlargement

Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković on EU Enlargement, Migration and Ukraine

Growing Pains: EU Enlargement Must Not Endanger the Rule of Law and Capacity to Act

Keeping Friends Closer: Why the EU Should Address New Geoeconomic Realities and Deepen Partnerships with its Neighbours

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