The 2024 NATO Washington Summit had all the makings of a celebration. Within the hallowed halls where NATO was founded in 1949, allies and partners welcomed Sweden as the bloc’s 32nd member, declared Ukraine’s path toward NATO membership “irreversible”, honoured Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s decade of service, and commemorated 75 years of what is often considered the most successful military alliance in history. But as flags are lowered and global leaders depart the US capital, vital concerns linger. Beyond the myriad challenges facing the alliance, apprehensions over how current and forthcoming political developments in the US could affect NATO’s future are in the spotlight.

Amid NATO’s progress, US elections loom large

The Strategic Concept, which was introduced at the 2022 Madrid Summit with further commitments met in Vilnius last year, reinvigorated and strengthened NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This year’s Washington Summit further advanced that development with several key actions, including the establishment of a NATO Integrated Cyber Defense Centre, joint procurement improvements through the NATO Defence Planning Process, enhancement of cooperation with Asia-Pacific partners, and a Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, US President Joe Biden asserted in his opening speech, “Today, NATO is more powerful than ever,” emphasising that the alliance’s progress reflects a robust and deep commitment to deterring aggression and defending every inch of NATO territory.

However, these words will do little to quell the growing worries of European allies. Pivotal US elections, which are less than four months away, threaten the return of Donald Trump, a fierce critic of NATO, to the White House.

The apprehension among Europeans has been heightened by Biden’s recent campaign struggles, following a failed debate performance in late June. Biden’s additional gaffes during the summit, such as mistakenly referring to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as President Putin and Vice President Kamala Harris as Vice President Trump, have intensified scrutiny.

With the President lagging behind Trump in key swing states and members of the Democratic leadership calling for Biden to end his candidacy, the potential for a second Trump term appears to be growing. The implications for NATO could be severe.

Trump’s renewed threats to European security and Ukraine’s future

In stark contrast to President Biden’s opening remarks at the NATO Summit, Donald Trump’s speech at a Florida campaign rally the same evening struck a markedly different tone. When he took office in 2017, Trump highlighted his initial ignorance of NATO and praised his subsequent – and false – understanding that the US was funding NATO and its delinquent members’ security.

In Florida, he reiterated his February 2024 comments that should a NATO member not meet the bloc’s 2% defence spending pledge, the US would not provide military assistance if attacked. This direct contradiction to what President Biden described as the alliance’s “most sacred pledge” (Article 5) almost certainly left European allies uneasy in the very seats where that pledge was conceived 75 years ago.

While the recently released Republican Party platform avoids the inflammatory language used on the campaign trail, and comments from Trump allies suggest he would honour US treaty obligations, the volatility of a second Trump term would undoubtedly affect US commitments to NATO, force posture in Europe, and continued support for Ukraine.

Two former National Security Council officials from the Trump administration, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg (ret.) and Fred Fleitz, now working with the America First Policy Institute, have even introduced potential peace plans to Trump that propose halting US aid to Ukraine if Kyiv does not enter negotiations with Moscow.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has controversially misused his country’s new EU Council presidency and repeatedly blocked EU and NATO support for Ukraine, managed to distract from the summit’s progress too. Leaving Washington early, he met with Trump to discuss so-called “peace proposals” for the war in Ukraine.

Orbán’s meeting comes off the back of similar talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping – whose country’s actions in the conflict are condemned repeatedly in the 2024 NATO Communique. These developments, along with Trump’s own claims to be able to solve the conflict in a single day, highlight the probable disruptions to commitments made in Washington should Trump return to power next January.

A clear path forward for Europe amid US political turmoil

The Biden administration’s recent commitments, including the deployment of long-range U.S. missles in Germany in 2026, a new $225 million weapons package for Ukraine, and a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, are at risk with the November elections on the horizon.

A weakened US pillar of NATO and a reversal of US Ukraine policy under a second Trump term would create significant gaps in European security and undermine the Washington Summit’s vision of Ukraine’s irreversible future in NATO.

European concerns over the upcoming election might have dampened the celebrations this week, but once again they underscore Europe’s over-reliance on American security and defence. Regardless of whether Trump returns to office or Biden remains with a likely divided US Congress, NATO’s European allies should focus on increasing investment in this critical area.

This task is challenging, particularly given the increasingly volatile political climates in major EU and NATO members, such as France and Germany. This is compounded by disunity among EU Member States – notably Hungary and Slovakia – concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, these complexities should not obscure the substantial progress achieved in Europe in recent years. In 2020, only nine NATO allies met the bloc’s 2% defence spending target. Today, that number has risen to 23. Several countries have even exceeded the 2% mark in line with the Vilnius Summit Declaration. Additionally, nearly 20 European nations have entered bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.

These developments must continue forward, as Europe cannot afford to fall into the same precarious cycle, handcuffing its security needs to electoral outcomes in the US every four years. In this milestone year for NATO, while the US elections are a concern, Europe’s path forward should be clear – Enhancing European security and defence integration – through increased investments, combat readiness, joint procurement, capabilities, and cooperation – will foster a stronger, more independent Europe, in turn, bolstering NATO’s resilience.

About the authors

Brandon Bohrn works as a project manager in the Europe’s Future program. His work centers around U.S.-German and transatlantic relations. Previously, he worked on the transatlantic team at the Bertelsmann Foundation in Washington, D.C.

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