With France losing its EU leadership sway after a tumultuous election year and Germany experiencing a political crisis that has triggered snap elections, Poland is emerging as the European Union’s linchpin.

On 1 January, Poland will take over the presidency of the EU Council, giving it a strategic opportunity to consolidate its role as an emerging key player in Europe. Whether this proves successful or not, Poland’s importance in the current geopolitical circumstances is undeniable. Against the backdrop of an aggressive Russia seeking to restructure the European order, a Trump 2.0 presidency and Europe struggling to speak and act in unison, the EU can no longer afford to sideline Poland’s voice.

While the EU presidency traditionally follows in line with the EU’s wider objectives, Poland will make its own mark. Prime Minister Donald Tusk envisions a presidency that moves beyond routine, leveraging Poland’s six-month term to position the EU for a “political offensive” rather than mere “survival”, with security at its core. For the EU, this means not only safeguarding its integrity but also strengthening its ability to function as a resilient political and economic entity in the face of both external and internal challenges.

Among the seven identified security dimensions, external security stands out as paramount, given the current tense geopolitical climate. The priorities publicly outlined by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda come as no surprise: securing financing for the ‘East Shield’ and the European defense industry, bolstering EU support for Ukraine, accelerating EU enlargement, imposing tougher sanctions on Russia and deepening transatlantic ties.

These initiatives resonate with Poland’s long-standing orientation, which is deeply rooted in the country’s strategic culture, and fit well with the global resurgence of realpolitik. At the same time, an impulse from Poland’s foreign policy approach may be exactly what the EU needs to navigate the global political turmoil and master its geopolitical transformation.

Poland takes the EU helm: A fresh start after Hungary’s controversial term

After six turbulent months, several scandal-ridden state visits and a self-declared ‘peace mission’ by Viktor Orban, there is a palpable sigh of relief in Brussels that Poland is taking over from Hungary.

Poland certainly promises a better starting position to champion EU priorities. The country is one of Ukraine’s most reliable partners and advocates in the West, a fierce critic of Russia and a pro-Atlanticist with high stakes in an effective European security cooperation based on the EU and NATO.

Just as importantly, since last year’s fateful election, which saw the return of former European Council President Donald Tusk as Poland’s prime minister, the country has been trying hard to get its feet back on democratic, pro-European ground by setting a counter-example to the right-wing shift in other countries.

Under these circumstances, provocative Orban-like unilateral actions are unlikely, even from President Duda, a former member of the right-wing populist PiS party during Poland’s EU presidency. Duda’s role as a right-wing nationalist president, endowed with veto power and important foreign and security policy responsibilities, remain a point of contention domestically. However, his foreign policy positions align with Poland’s broader political consensus.

Former rebel, now moral leader: What’s changed for Poland?

Under the previous PiS government, Poland was often perceived as a troublemaker within the EU because of tensions over the rule of law. But its response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 has markedly transformed its role within the bloc.

Unlike several other European nations, particularly Germany, Poland’s foreign policy principles – deep scepticism toward Moscow, prioritisation of territorial defence and a sense of duty toward its eastern neighbours – were not shaken, but instead reinforced by Russia’s resurgence as an expansionist power.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine galvanised Polish national unity, enabling the government to respond swiftly and decisively to Russian aggression. Poland’s extensive military and humanitarian aid was delivered in a spirit of brotherly support immediately after the war began.

This contrasted sharply with the cautious responses of European heavyweights, such as Germany and France. Poland emerged as a staunch supporter of Ukraine, coordinating Western military aid, partnering strategically with the United States and serving as the EU’s moral leader in advocating for robust action.

Along with the Baltic states, Poland had long warned against Western Europe’s transactional policies and dependence on Russian energy. While the EU showed unity in sanctioning Russia and supporting Ukraine, Poland pushed for even stronger measures, openly criticising Germany’s initial reluctance to act, as well as Austria and Hungary’s Russophile stances, holding the EU accountable to its core values.

As the war continues and Poland’s once unwavering social and political support for Ukraine has slightly waned, the country’s role remains critical amid transatlantic uncertainty and mounting diplomatic pressures. The perspectives of Eastern EU and NATO members – once dismissed, particularly by Germany, as Cold War-era thinking – are now increasingly valued.

As a larger state without a significant Russian minority, Poland is no longer just a vital advocate for Central and Eastern European, but for Baltic and Nordic concerns too. It amplifies these voices in strategic Western capitals, such as Brussels, Berlin, Paris and London.

This strengthens EU cohesion in foreign affairs and may foster closer ties with potential enlargement countries in the European Eastern Neighbourhood and the Western Balkans. The current risk of these nations drifting away from the EU’s sphere of influence is particularly significant for Poland, given its deep connection to them through a shared historical destiny.

Trump 2.0: Poland as potential key to navigating transatlantic turmoil

With Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, Europe faces an era of uncertainty and turbulence. For Poland – whose relationship with the US has historically been anchored in broader security concerns – this outcome is first and foremost a worst-case scenario.

Trump’s lack of affinity for Ukraine, his European NATO allies and the fight for liberal values conflicts directly with Poland’s core interests: a strong US presence as NATO’s security guarantor, robust support for Ukraine and firm opposition to Russian aggression. Conversely, his win is likely to embolden the right-wing nationalist movements that Donald Tusk has only recently succeeded in unseating.

However, a closer look reveals light on the horizon. Europe now has no choice but to do its utmost to influence a Trump 2.0 on his terms – and this is where Poland’s upcoming EU Council presidency, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration, holds particular significance.

Trump maintains a generally favourable view of Poland. During his first presidential term, he cultivated strong ties with the PiS government and with Duda, who was often referred to as a “Republican whisperer.”

Much like Viktor Orban, the former Polish ruling party has done well to appeal to Trump's political sensibilities. PiS leaders regularly appeared at conservative US events, Duda notably refrained from congratulating Joe Biden on his 2020 election victory, and in 2018, the PiS government even proposed naming a military base Fort Trump to persuade the White House to increase troop deployments in Poland.

Despite PiS’s recent electoral defeat and the upcoming presidential election in May 2025, which will mark the end of Duda’s second term, the current government has diligently worked to maintain these ties, fully aware of the stakes involved in securing American security guarantees under a potential second Trump administration.

While external influence on US policy should not be overstated, the positive relationship between Polish and US officials, particularly between Duda and Trump, provides a diplomatic channel that could benefit Europe and Ukraine. At the very least, this connection provides an additional avenue for advancing common interests in the face of ongoing global crises – a resource that Europe should use to maintain strong transatlantic ties.

A Polish boost for creating a European Defence Union

The shared stance of the US – particularly under Donald Trump – and Poland on increasing Europe’s defence investment could lay the foundations for renewed relations in January.

Poland leads by example. Shaped by the lessons of WWII, it prioritises national defence as the core mission of its armed forces. While maintaining a minimum defence budget of 1.95 percent of GDP as anchored in the constitution, Poland has responded to Russia’s war in Ukraine by committing to exceed NATO’s two percent benchmark, targeting 4.7 percent of GDP by 2025 – more than double NATO’s goal.

This ambitious approach aligns with Trump’s so-called "shock therapy" during his previous term, which sought to push Europe toward greater defence spending. Poland not only supported this push but pressured the European Commission to allocate more resources to defence. For Poland, pooling resources and capabilities at the European level is not only pragmatic but essential, especially given the uncertainties surrounding the long-term viability of its ambitious defence plans amid economic and demographic challenges.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has responded to the evolving security landscape by appointing former Lithuanian prime minister and current MEP Andrius Kubilius as the new EU Defence Commissioner. Poland is expected to be a strong advocate for Kubilius, supporting EU initiatives to boost the production capacity of the European defence industry and urging member states to allocate the necessary resources for success. The question of financing is crucial, as European states remain divided on whether the current situation justifies new joint borrowing; Germany remains reluctant, while Poland – whose EU commissioner oversees the Union's budget – strongly advocates for the introduction of so-called defense bonds.

Poland's moment to shine – but not without support from European allies

While the influence of an EU Council presidency should not be overstated, it provides Poland with a valuable platform to position itself at the core of the EU. This moment is particularly opportune. Unlike its last presidency during the euro crisis in 2011, when Poland was sidelined as a non-Euro country, it now has the experience and credibility to take on a leading role. The success of the eastward shift in European power dynamics will largely depend on Poland's ability to balance national election dynamics with its responsibilities as a European agenda-setter.

Although Western European states, particularly Germany, may view a shift with caution, they should support Poland’s leadership over the next six months in the interests of a unified European approach. Prioritising dialogue and constructive cooperation is crucial, as Europe cannot afford disjointed solo efforts or exclusionary moves – such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to host US President Joe Biden for talks on Ukraine, inviting London and Paris while sidelining Warsaw.

The Weimar Triangle provides an existing platform with the potential to facilitate strategic dialogue between Germany, France and Poland. All that remains is for Germany and France to take this step in expanding their notorious European leadership club and make use of it.

About the author

Helena Quis is an intern of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Europe Program, where her work centres on EU-UK relations and European security and defence cooperation.

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