What To Expect of Today’s First EU-UK Summit

London seeks closer ties with Brussels while clinging to outdated red lines. The EU remains meticulous in its insistence on fair competition and coherence in its relations with third countries. Both positions only partially address Europe’s new security needs.

Happiness is reality minus expectations. Anyone who believes in this maxim may find today’s summit rewarding simply by virtue of it taking place at all. It is, after all, the first formal exchange at the highest political level since Brexit – an early rupture in the crumbling Western alliance, from what now feels like a different era.

The summit follows a decade of unproductive attempts to come to terms with the separation. One need only think of the UK’s overambitious drive (“Global Britain”) or EU apathy, born of resentment (“Brexit must not be allowed to succeed”).

Sceptics, in view of an increasingly tense geopolitical landscape, are already lamenting the low level of ambition behind the summit. After all, the threat to a liberal, rules-based world order ought to unite like-minded partners as a matter of course.

In truth, the situation is more complex, as the EU and the UK are now both security partners and economic competitors. The pressing issue of a stronger and more integrated European defence industry – a prerequisite for European deterrence – touches on both dimensions. So what should be expected of today’s summit?

Three concrete outcomes are anticipated. Firstly, the conclusion of a new security and defence partnership, secondly a “geopolitical preamble” on shared global interests, and thirdly a joint understanding on closer cooperation across a range of topics.

For the British, the latter will include mutual recognition of professional qualifications and of UK conformity assessment bodies for goods. Also on the agenda are the linkage of emissions trading systems and closer cooperation in tackling illegal migration. From the EU’s perspective, key items are an agreement on youth mobility and a stabilisation of current EU fishing quotas in the North Sea.

Also significant is a yet-to-be-negotiated agreement on trade in foodstuffs and animal products. This holds clues as to what a future rapprochement with the Single Market might look like. London has signalled a willingness to accept dynamic regulatory alignment for veterinary products, including the involvement of the European Court of Justice. Looking ahead, a gradual, sector-specific convergence with the Single Market is not an unrealistic prospect.

The prerequisite for this is a relationship founded on trust. A central and timely element of today’s summit is therefore the establishment of a new security partnership. The “Security and Defence Partnership” (SDP), a relatively recent EU instrument, allows the EU to form tailored, though non-binding, agreements with like-minded partners. The concept of security here is broadly defined. Such agreements already exist with Albania, Moldova, North Macedonia, South Korea, Japan, and Norway.

Since the launch of the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative to fund European rearmament plans, such partnerships have also become a precondition for access to EU loans by non-EU states. Under current plans, the EEA states, Switzerland, Ukraine, and existing or potential EU candidate countries would qualify.

As things stand, however, even the conclusion of a new agreement would not grant the UK this status, but would merely allow for case-by-case negotiations, for which British financial contributions would be crucial. Moreover, the Commission currently aims to ensure that the end products of joint procurement do not result in dependencies on third countries – another barrier to UK participation.

Yet the biggest challenge to getting a deal over the line today has been that some EU member states viewed these diverse topics as a package deal: no security partnership without agreement on the central EU demands on fishing or mobility. Negotiations on these issues stalled up to the last minute. A breakthrough ultimately hinged on British concessions on fishing quotas – with the UK agreeing to a 12-year deal – and on making it easier for young EU citizens to study, work and live in the UK (and vice versa, for that matter).

The attitude behind this negotiating tactic raises questions about the EU’s ability to form strategic alliances. A geopolitical actor must be able to keep the bigger picture in mind – namely the integrity of the Western alliance. But London, too, must be prepared to make bold decisions and reassess outdated positions. British opinion polls indicate there is room for a reorientation towards the EU.

Today’s summit is thus no more than a welcome starting point for a complex and long-term rapprochement. What is now required is flexibility and courage on both sides of the Channel – and the ability to keep the real goal in sight, namely the security and resilience of Europe in an increasingly dangerous world.

About the author

Jake Benford is Senior Expert Europe and Geopolitics at the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Europe‘s Future programme.

 A shorter version of this text was first published by Table.Media Europe