April 27, 2015 Fritz Putzhammer

Study: BREXIT – UK EXIT

This study examines the economic consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU and thus from the European common market. It is the first study that examines and calculates the economic consequences not only for the United Kingdom, but for the remaining EU-27 member states as well. The study calculates the GDP losses that could arise from the UK’s exit from the EU. The term “GDP losses” describes the difference expressed in percentages between the observed real GDP in the base year (2014) and the simulated (counterfactual) value for a situation in which the United Kingdom is no longer an EU member. Trade policy measures take ten to twelve years after they are introduced to reach full effect. If a BREXIT occurs in 2018, the highlighted effects would be fully felt by 2030. With its Global Economic Dynamics project, the Bertelsmann Stiftung analyzes the causes, correlations and effects of complex economic developments. In particular, it examines developments in existing and emerging international trade areas. Previous studies (“Globalization Report 2014” and “20 Years of the European Domestic Market”) have already considered in detail the effects of international trade integration such as through trade agreements (e.g., “Economic Effects of TTIP”)