Making predictions in politics and international relations is never easy. Even for events that are marked on the calendar, such as elections and summits, unforeseen circumstances can cloud foresight concerning their outcomes. But each year we try make a few predictions, based on our research and insights, about pivotal dynamics that will determine Europe’s future.  

In January 2024, we looked ahead to a busy calendar of elections, as well as the G7’s declining collective power and the relative rise in significance of BRICS+. It was clear then the political right would be stronger in Europe after multiple elections, but the sweeping losses by incumbents, now a major narrative for this year, was not a foregone conclusion.  

Looking ahead to 2025, here is our best attempt to pick out upcoming major events and trends. But perhaps only by year’s end will the connecting threads reveal themselves. 

Trump returns four years after the Capitol was stormed – Brandon Bohrn and Peter Walkenhorst 

The year starts with a seminal event that no one can deny will be year-defining: The return of Donald Trump. On 20 January, Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States for the second time. His return to the White House means profound changes for Europe, and especially for Germany. Driven by an aggressive, protectionist agenda, Trump’s policies could radically reshape transatlantic security, support for Ukraine, economic and trade relations, technology policy, and, at the same time, strengthen anti-democratic forces in Europe. 

Unconstrained by re-election pressures and surrounded from day one by loyal advisors, Trump will likely pursue a far more disruptive agenda than he did in his first term from 2017 to 2021. So far, Trump’s nominations for his cabinet and other key government posts suggest these fears are more than justified. 

A second Trump administration could withdraw the US from NATO – or at least weaken the American pillar of the alliance – making security commitments conditional on a sharp increase in European defence spending. The US could further cut support for Ukraine and impose tariffs on European exports that could strain economic ties. 

European leaders have already offered welcoming gestures to the President-elect, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s trip to Mar-a-Lago and French President Emannuel Macron’s trilateral meeting with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris. Behind the scenes, however, European leaders are preparing for a far different response based on which of Trump’s previous statements – and outright threats – will become policy following Inauguration Day.  

New EU-Middle East partnerships for 2025: Realistic goals or a toothless ambition? – Christian Hanelt 

The EU’s wish list for the Middle East is long and challenging. For one, as Syria tries to move forward after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the EU is keen for citizens to benefit from good, inclusive governance. Another priority is strengthening Israeli and Palestinian organisations who work jointly for a two-state-solution. In general, the difficult relations between the EU and Türkiye are a detriment to EU influence in the region, so rebuilding this relationship is an important goal for 2025. And finally, for the Mediterranean region as a whole, climate action, job creation and fair migration remain ongoing aims. 

Dubravka Šuica, the EU Commissioner specifically dedicated to the Mediterranean and the Middle East region, has been tasked with building stronger partnerships between the EU and all countries across the Mediterranean. Šuica is expected to engage in conflict resolution, closely cooperating with Kaja Kallas, the new Commission Vice-President and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

To achieve these ambitions, the political support of EU member states for Commission and Council initiatives is essential. This will require the creation of unified positions in word and deed, combined with financial coordination by European and member state institutions.  

If EU and member states remain stuck in empty declarations and blocked by conflicting national interests, then President-elect Donald Trump – and others outside Europe – will create the facts on the ground in the European neighbourhood.

For example, if Trump withdraws US troops from eastern Syria, the Kurds there would be weakened, especially if Türkiye’s army and affiliated Syrian Sunni militias attack them further. This shift in power could open up opportunities for Islamic State terrorists take more ground. Furthermore, Russia is already withdrawing military capacity from Syria, which is good news for the West, but bad news could follow. The Kremlin intends to station them in eastern Libya, which may trouble Europe even more in another volatile situation. 

Even though he is not yet in office, Trump’s statements are already bringing change to the Middle East. If the ceasefire in Lebanon holds – an agreement in itself that some are attributing at least in part to the incoming Trump administration – depends on EU-US practical financial and technical support for the Lebanese army to support its takeover of Hezbollah territory in the south, and on strengthening the mandate of the international peacekeepers, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), to keep the Israeli-Lebanese border stable. 

The EU must find the capacity to deal with these complex situations – in parallel to developments Ukraine – from a position of unity. 

More trends and events coming in January 2025!

Read more

14 Major Events that Could Shape Europe and the World in 2024

European Economic Outlook 2025: Multiple Crises Dampen the Upswing

Europe Reacts to Trump: What to Expect in Security and Defence Policy

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