The Best of GED – 2018

2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump – to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade.

As is tradition, we want to celebrate this completion of yet another year of GED economic expertise with you, our faithful audience. For that we have selected our favorite blopogst for each month this year, which we present to you here in chronological order:

January

Iran: Two Years After the Lifting of International Sanctions

How have sanctions affected the Iranian economy and what has happened since they were lifted?

Februrary

Why the EU Should Pay More Attention to Indonesia

The EU and Indonesia completed the 4th round of negotiations on their bilateral free trade agreement in Surakarta, Indonesia. A trade deal with the world’s 4th most populous nation would be an important strategic move for the EU in a time when the United States, once the EU’s key partner, takes a protectionist course.

March

Boosting Intra-African Trade

Though the journey towards a better-integrated continent is in progress, the CFTA is still met with certain obstacles and challenges despite what is to be gained. The objective of the focus paper is to, therefore, critically analyse the opportunities of trade facilitation in Africa and its hindrances.

April

A Safety Net to Foster Support for Trade and Globalisation

Given the rise of protectionist reflexes and a world on the brink of trade war, a survey by the Bertelsmann Stiftung of attitudes towards trade and globalisation gauges the temperature among people in twelve developed and emerging economies. It finds that attitudes are generally positive but that some negative side effects worry the respondents.

May

Is China Systematically Buying Up German Key Technologies?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can have positive effects, such as job creation, on the host country’s economy. However, the surge in Chinese M&A transactions in Germany has recently aroused suspicion. What is behind the increased interest in “Made in Germany”? And in which sectors do investors from China invest most frequently?

June

Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?

The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole.

July

Revitalizing Multilateral Governance at the World Trade Organization

The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO.

August

Curse or Blessing? The U.S. Dollar as the Global Currency

Over the last five years (2013 to 2017), the U.S. trade deficit has averaged $500 billion per year. That means on its own: in each of these five years, U.S. external debt increased by $500 billion. By the end of March 2018, the gross external debt of the U.S. had reached a value of more than $19 trillion – the world’s highest debt of an economy. Is the U.S. Dollar a Curse or a Blessing?

September

10 Years after Lehman – Does another Economic Crisis loom?

In September 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered the worst economic slump since the global economic crisis in the 1930s. What are the central causes of an economic crisis?

October

Are the G7 countries no longer Germany’s top trading partners?

In this blogpost we analyze the fragmentation of production for three key German industries: machinery and equipment, chemicals, and motor vehicles.

November

The Rage Against Globalization Shows Up In the Voting Booth

This GED Focus Paper looks at imports and voting results in Germany. By measuring Chinese import penetration and running a set of linear regression models, the paper finds that districts more heavily exposed to import penetration showed an increased propensity to support the anti-globalization oriented, right-wing populist AfD party during the 2013 and 2017 elections.

December

The Tide is Turning: How Emerging Markets are catching up as Global Investors

Developed economies have dominated global FDI flows in the past, with outsourcing of labor-intensive production from high-wage industrialized countries (like Germany) to low-wage developing countries (like China). No longer. Since the global financial crisis, this pattern has started to shift, with China emerging as a major global investor. The textile and electronic industry are classic examples.