February 1, 2017 Christian Bluth

Brexit – What Road Ahead?

In December 2016, the GED Team held the “Bertelsmann Stiftung European Forum in Association With Financial Times”, debating on our panel the future of Brexit and the EU-UK relationship. A great panel and an equally great audience made for a perfect evening of debate and we are working on bringing you a video version of this debate within the next week or two. In the meantime, however, we have this little teaser for you. The following three animated videos each represent a distinct thematic bloc of our Brexit debate. Watch them, get excited and check back soon for the full debate!

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU. Most economic commentators – in alignment with research from the GED project – expected that a vote to leave the EU would be followed by slower economic growth in the UK. However, after an initial shock on the morning of June 24, most economic indicators have remained stable. The following video looks at what Brexit means for businesses in the short run.

One argument why so far not many negative effects have been witnessed in the economy is that the Brexit processes has not formally begun yet. It will be years until we know the outcome of the negotiation process – so it does make sense for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach. But how does the divorce process between the United Kingdom and the European Union actually work? Have a look at the next video to find out more.

Neither the EU nor the UK is likely to gain from Brexit. The extent of the losses however depends on the kind of future relationship between the two trade areas. By now, Prime Minister Theresa May has confirmed that her government will be seeking a hard Brexit. As the video below argues, however, if the UK remained a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) the economic consequences would be much more limited. A hard Brexit, as currently envisioned, would be much more negative. But of course the relationship between the EU and Britain is not only about the economy, many other elements such as the common security and defence policy might be impacted as well.